Salmonella Research Today is a free monthly online journal that collates and summarizes the latest research about Salmonella, including details on salmonella typhimurium, food poisoning, infection, treatment.

Dynamics of Salmonella transmission on a British pig grower-finisher farm: a stochastic model.

Hill AA, Snary EL, Arnold ME, Alban L, Cook AJ

Centre for Epidemiology and Risk Analysis, Veterinary Laboratories Agency Weybridge, New Haw, Surrey, UK. a.hill@vla.defra.gsi.gov.uk

Previous modelling studies have estimated that between 1% and 10% of human salmonella infections are attributable to pig meat consumption. In response to this food safety threat the British pig industry have initiated a salmonella monitoring programme. It is anticipated that this programme will contribute to achieving a UK Food Standards Agency target for reducing salmonella levels in pigs at slaughter by 50% within 5 years. In order to better inform the monitoring programme, we have developed a stochastic transmission model for salmonella in a specialist grower-finisher pig herd, where data from a Danish longitudinal study have been used to estimate some of the key model parameters. The model estimates that about 17% of slaughter-age pigs will be infected with salmonella, and that of these infected pigs about 4% will be excreting the organism. In addition, the model shows that the most effective control strategies will be those that reduce between-pen transmission.

Published 4 February 2008 in Epidemiol Infect, 136(3): 320-33.
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